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Question
or Comment:
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| Q: |
"I recently saw
a new book advertised by Gerald Marisch called "The
W.D. Gann Method of Trading - A Simplified, Clear
Approach." Is this book any good? Does it explain
things better than Larry Williams' "Batting .800"?
I know Larry Williams is a proven commodity's trader,
however I read a review of his course recently and
I agree with that review. His book is sloppy and does
not reference things on the page very well. Also,
the video course is not very easy to follow. I'm looking
for some plain
english, simple charting systems to get started in
commodities trading. Can you help? Thanks
for your time." Alex |
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| Q: |
Dear Mr. Smith, I have
long admired your work at FNN. I have previously been
a subscriber to CTCR...thanks for taking it over.
I just received your special reprint of the Nov 1998
issue and indeed it was fascinating! A good job...I
agree with your assessment of Jake Bernstein (How
did Larry ever get mixed up with him?) Right now I'm
interested in combining multiple seasonal factors
for the nearby S&P contract (not spread) or the cash
index. But maybe Jake's the best out there in seasonals...
I've ordered and studied The Stock Trader's Almanac.
Traditionally, they're the experts at stock market
seasonals but I find the data incomplete. The same
to a slightly lesser degree with the Supertrader's
Almanac. The newsletter Market Logic is fairly good
but analyzed data only goes to 1994-5.
Have you ever or do you know
of any company that makes (or could make) software
that produces the expected daily % change of the S&P
-- taking into account the year of the presidential
cycle, the annual bias, holiday effect, monthly, five
(six) day and 401(k) bulge, day-of-month and day-of-the
week historical record. All those "seasonals" could
be combined into a final grand score (without double
counting) for each and every trading day of any particular
year. For instance you could start with the average
yearly gain of 4.5%, which is four and one-half% or
.045 in decimal form. Divide that by the number of
trading days (250), and you get .00018, which is due
to the secular increase; the monthly % change in March,
for example is .01 and dividing that by 21 (days)
results in .00048, etc. I remember in the early days
there was a fellow who predicted the market on a daily
basis for a whole year (or more) ahead. I believe
anyone could do it with reasonbly accurate results
with the available seasonal data and a computer program!
The result, of course, could
be profitably used by anyone according to his or her
style as either a standalone or supplement to other
techniques. It's remarkable that by now such an obvious
statistically viable and stable bias has not been
long since discounted by the market but such seems
not the case... (see page four, THE 1999 STOCK TRADER'S
ALMANAC). Since 1950 the only major shift would seem
to be the day of week strengh reversal (from Friday
to Monday) and the 401(k) mid-month bulge as well
as an extra end of month bullish day.
This niche procedure would seem
to be a natural and I have either overlooked it (serious
vendors - even after searching the web) or it has
been neglected by vendors altogether. If the latter
is the case, do you think the data could be customized
by a programmer? The bottom line is that the info
can be gathered and processed but it is very tedious
to do it by hand. Would you please comment and help
me?
Thanks, Bill |
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| Q: |
I just started trading
silver a few months ago. I knew nothing about commodity
trading before, but I thought I'd give it a shot.
I invested approximately $20,000 in 1,000 troy ounce
silver boullion in a margin account that gave me approximately
$80,000 leveraged funds. My equity was down to $15,000
when my trader suggested that I try to do a short
transaction. I did this to get a few thousand in profits
by selling long, so I could take the profit also when
the price went down. Meanwhile, I'm paying 11.65%
interest on an account where my equity is decreasing
steadily. +AFw
Is this normal? Shouldn't my equity have increased
when I sold my silver? At what point should I be worried
about my decreasing equity? Can you share any data
and trading strategies for silver? |
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| Q: |
Jack
Schwager is mentioned quite a lot on your
site- does he have a Web site of his own? |
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| Q: |
I have recently purchased
Larry's Money tree. He speaks about how to get the
Commercials from the
govt. How do I do that on the internet?? Can
you pass that on to him? I would also be interested
in what you are putting together. Can you e-mail me
more on what you will be doing? |
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| Q: |
I am currently in the
process of developing an end of day trading system
that fits my style and approach. I have extensive
programming experience, and have been using Metastock
by Equis and find their programming language to be
extremely limited for my needs. I just read your very
informative review of Supercharts,
and am feeling that the Easy Language might
indeed be more powerful and suited to my needs. Can
you create your own internally callable functions,
have more than just array variables (just a few of
many questions...)? I am concerned about the limitations
you found in testing capabilities with the language,
but do not have a feel for what the extra $2000 for
Tradestation would bring. Is there another system
somewhere in between that I could consider for an
end of day trading system? Thanks for your great work |
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| Q: |
I am a subscriber to
CTCR and Major Moves and I only trade the S&P and
don't follow the grains or soybeans. Local traders
have been telling me that the newsletter
of James Flanagan, Past Present Futures, is
good. In his recent newsletter he states a rare multiyear
opportunity is coming up this summer in wheat and
corn especially. I can't find the newsletter in CTCR.
What is your opinion of this newsletter and will
you be following the grains in Major Moves? |
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| Q: |
I live in Italy and I
wish to find more
web links to the advisors because it's really
difficult to me contact them by phone. Please check
some links as they are not updated. |
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| C: |
Hi, contacted you about
4 weeks ago about the
Omnitrader package. After you purchase it,
they let you join a undisclosed exclusive club, and
then sell you the " best results/high % profit" etc.,
package for only an additional $2500 (stocks) and
$3500 (futures). While using the trial verson, it
constantly erased data unless you carefully moved
the mouse. The vote line seems to be more magical
than fact. Bruce would tear into this software. Check
it out at www.nirv.com
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| Q: |
I want to open an account
for self-directed IRA and invest in commodities. I
do my own research and I investment decision. I was
wondering if you are reviewing the
trust companies who allow to invest in commodities.
I'm having a hard time finding information about those
trust companies. (Who they are?, what is there financial
strength?, is there any litigation against them?,
etc.) |
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| Q: |
I've just been browsing
the Omega Research web site and I've noticed that
they are advertising Jack
Schwager's Complete Guide to Designing and Testing
Trading Systems Course. I'm very interested
in the course but before I consider buying I'm looking
for some independent reviews- have you ever reviewed
the course? If so what's your opinion? If you haven't
reviewed it do you know of anyone who has? Or will
you be reviewing it in the future? Your help is greatly
appreciated & well done on an excellent site. |
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| Q: |
Editor-in-Chief Courtney
Smith: We had a reader ask about the well advertised
David Bowden's Safety in
the Market program. We have not seen it yet
so have not been able to review it. However, we asked
you, our valued readers, if they had any opinions
and they did! Here are three succinct insights: |
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| C: |
Having decided to expand
the centerfold, you should try to diversify
the mix of advisors in terms of approaches: |
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| Q: |
What
is your critique of the Ken
Roberts course? |
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| C: |
Y2K
bug. SuperCharts as it now stands, has a "Y2K"
shortcoming. I tried to load a dummy ascii file with
"00" year dates, and SuperCharts would not load this
Chart -- Omega probably is going to take undue advantage
of this bug and charge mucho $ for new version. What
choice will you have ? Bill |
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| C: |
It was a good decision
to expand your list of
advisors beyond 26. However, be selective.
Try to incorporate advisors with long term stable
track records that don't keep jumping from one method
to another. Samuel |
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| Q: |
It is important to know
why Colin Alexander
changed the name of his newsletter |
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| Q: |
CTCR is a class act,
one of a kind. I will be a subscriber soon (was past
subscriber) What is your opinion of Omnitrader
and metastock 6.0/6.5? How does it compare
to Supercharts? Could you reply when possible. Thanks.
John |
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| Q: |
Hi, I think that you
need to update the reply to the question on Curtis
Arnold after what I read about him on the
http://www.cftc.gov/
Commodity Futures Trading Commission website. I started
looking for the software to go along with all the
glowing reports I was reading on the net about his
book PPS Trading System, and I found a lot more than
I bargained for !!!!!!! His website is not available
and the address and phone number given on your site
are probably defunct as well. I can not see anyone
wanting to be associated with this name at present.
Happy Easter, John |
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| Q: |
"Where could I get
examples/info on short
selling futures options both calls and puts?
I need to understand how profits/losses happen if
the buyer executes or not. Does this make sense? Thanks
for your time. I enjoy the site." |
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| Q: |
"What's the scoop
on this book (Robert
Miner's Dynamic Trading Book)? Have
you reviewed it, if so would like your opinion." |
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| Q: |
"I was wondering
if you knew anything about a
trading system offered by Bruce Gould, called the
"Money Machine". I must be on his mailing
list because I keep getting his sales letter in the
mail. He doesn't give any kind of specific information
about it. Anything you can tell me about would be
helpful." |
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| Q: |
"I have spent hours
and months trying to
find a portfolio tracker for commodities,
I gave up. It is hard to believe not one web site
has this. There are hundreds of stock portfolios you
can set up but not commodities. The ones that you
can put a commodity symbol in it does not calculate
the right fractions for commodities or shares (contract
sizes) Maybe you might know of one. You have a nice
site just bookmarked it" |
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| Q: |
Was
wondering how you tracked Bill Gary when
he uses such a wide range for his signals? For instance
when he says sell July Soybeans between 4 490 and
505 what price do you use in CTCR in determine his
track record? He seems to use these ranges on all
his signals.
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| Q: |
Would you have the track
record for Keypoint by Joe Duffy? Also do you know
how to contact Curtis Arnold
fof his newsletter on PPs trading? |
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| Q: |
Is there a letter that
specializes in options
on futures? If so, how's their performance?
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| Q: |
I have been reading your
interview in Stocks&Commodities and I have found it
most interesting. My own trading style is very, very
similar. By reading the interview, one can really
see, that you understand the trading business.
I have heard already several times about the Commodity
Traders Consumer Report. Can you send me a copy? |
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| Q: |
1) Have
you heard of Tom [Busby](& his program), or
are you familiar with him?
2) If so, what kind of a reputation does he have with
industry insiders - ie, a real trader, or ....what?
3) Do you know of anyone who's taken his training/seminar,
and if so, have you gotten any feedback - good or
bad? |
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| Q: |
Can you please tell me
anything about the Aberration
commodity trading system? Do you have a review of
it? |
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| Q: |
Every time I receive the Centerfold
the first thing I look at is the
Elliot Wave Theorist. I crack up everytime
I see the net gain/loss for the last 12 months. I
get a real kick ! You must have some pretty good reasons
for keeping this newsletter in the Centerfold. What
is it ? Should I subscribe to this newsletter and
do the opposite of what they say ? The losing consistency
is remarkable ! |
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| Q: |
I don't like how the X-axis of the
CTCR index
is unevenly subdivided. It hides valuable information.
Would it be possible to subdivide it into a single
equal increment, say monthly or quarterly ? |
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| Q: |
Have you ever thought of reviewing
futures and options videos? I see there are
plenty out there. 98 on the above sight. Cost is probably
prohibitive but it doesn't hurt to ask. I'm new to
futures/options and enjoy your site. Very informative. |
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| Q: |
ok, i am new to commodities, and
have been in the market for almost 2 months. I seem
to spent at least 8 hours a day reading, charting,
or anything I can do to get up to speed. I would like
to know in your opinion, what
is the best resourses that I can use (ie.
software, texts, market news), so that I can feel
that all of my avenues for making profitable trading
choices are covered. |
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| Q: |
I just read the short comments on
Street Smarts by
Linda Raschke. I'm not sure just how to interpret
the comments. The fact that the ideas could probably
pay for the book are not too encouraging. Although
taken from another perspective the remarks could be
taken positively. Could you please elaborate? Are
you saying the book is overpriced? |
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| Q: |
"I am considering enrolling
in the Profitunity
course of Bill Williams in Texas. Using
all of this indicators as presented do you feel that
for someone looking for real time confirmation of
entry signals that this package really does work...day
in day out...(particularly on the intraday time frames
of 5-10 minute charts)? ...I would like to have some
non company feedback before I invest the extensive
time and money required to complete the course." |
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| Q: |
Unless I am mistaken the December
issue listed the Scale
Trader as very profitable. I think the
readers of your newsletter need to know the there
has been a recent change in editors and many of the
old unprofitable scales were simply dropped and never
mentioned again. |
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| Q: |
I, like many others, received a pamphlet
from Ken Roberts
Co. I have no experience in futures trading
and very little with stocks, mutual funds, etc. I
am a wife and mother of two. I have always had my
own career, but chose to stay home for my kids (I
still work periodically in the film industry). Anyway,
I sent for his manual and received it last week. I
have also been looking for commodity info on the Internet
and came across your report. I read what you wrote
and am just wondering about the dangerous things you
mentioned that I should look out for or be aware of.
I would appreciate any advice. |
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| Q: |
I am planning to start futures trading
I have no knowledge and am going to purchase LARRY
WILLIAMS "money tree" video course and I just
wanted to know if he is reputable and if his course
is a good start for me! |
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| Q: |
How
many pages do you send by email? There are
many pages that you don't need to send by email
every month...
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| Q: |
I am a beginner of future trading
and also a trend trading believer. After searching
the web for a while, I find out there is a group of
trades named "turtle trader". They claim themselves
as a trend follower but I cannot find any other reference
for the "turtle trader". Could
you give me any insight about the "turtle trader"? |
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| Q: |
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| Q: |
I once bought intraday data package
from you for 1990-93. Now I need 60 min continues
data for
the major currencies for 1994, 1995, 1996, and this
year. Please let me know if you can provide
this. |
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