How does weather fit into this? You've got your models and conditioned seasonals then it goes and rains. What do you do? How do you factor that into your trading?

That comes back to trading experience. You know that during the summer period you are going to be in weather markets. The change in the weather forecast can completely change the character of the market temporarily, not permanently. We've got to recognize that our risk exposure is much greater during summer months than it is during fall and winter months. Then you take on more demand characteristic rather than the supply characteristics of the summer months. I've learned over many years and having gone through many disheartening experiences during this time of year. Markets move hard and fast this time of year.

How do you pyramid your position again? Can you give more details?

We already have our base position in the Beans. We had a technical breakout today so we had our first add. Now we are sitting here with our first add and we have a short term technical objective. If we approach those objectives in the next couple of days, we will begin to reduce that pyramid. We will keep the money aside to buy the next setback. We may have a base of four contracts and added two on today's breakout and we may take a profit on one near the objective and hold the extra one, hoping for a break after the crop report. If we get the break after the crop report we will pick up that extra contract on a test of today's breakout. If the market goes below today's breakout then we get out of all pyramids and go right back to our base position. If it comes down and tests the breakout level, we'll pick up that one contract that we let go of and we may pick up another one, depending on the circumstances. When the market breaks out again, we will add again.Over a period of time, say several months, we'll build from a four contract position to having maybe 20-25 contracts. That's when it starts to get difficult because that's when the dollars start to mean more. A 10 cent move is a lot more dollars. Let's look at another example. Let's say we get to September and we get some minor freeze damage. We'll go back to previous years with minor freeze damage and see what happened in those years. That gives us an idea on how we should pyramid. Perhaps the market has a temporary two to three day rally then breaks. We might lighten up on that rally. When the break comes, we may double our position; half on the break and half on the breakout back up. It's a very fluid type thing. I like to read books that say do this here and that there. They are very specific. Unfortunately, the marketplace is not that specific. The market is very fluid. You've got to be able to move with the marketplace. Be ready to take a loss as well as a profit depending on the circumstances. You're going to have surprises. Hopefully, some of those surprises are going to be in your favor. Hopefully, the stocks report is going to be more bullish than you thought it would be. But it doesn't work that way and a lot of times we will build up a big position and we are coming into a stocks report and the market is going up into that stocks report, then we will start to lighten up our positions to reduce our risk because the market is already discounting what we expect. Then, when the stocks report comes out, maybe its more bullish than we thought. Then we've got to get our position back. Let's say we reduced our position by a third or something. We've got to get it back so we go and look for some situation that history tells us what the price action will be doing so we can plan our strategy. I'll never make as much money during the crop scare period as I will during the realization period because I can't build up a large enough position.

Who is doing good fundamental analysis in your opinion?

Bill Longstreet, Roy Longstreet's son, does good work. There's not many people who do our kind of work. The grain companies do but we can't see it. Sparks in Memphis is probably the biggest public research firm in the country today. Anybody can go to Sparks and get all kinds of research. It's good quality fundamental research. They have some good people. Some of the wirehouses have good people. The oilseeds analyst with Prudential, Anne Fricke, is very good. Anne has been in the business for a long time. She's very good and diligent about running studies about what's going on right now. I think she's excellent. There are several good people around like that but you have to find them.

What would your final recommendation be to traders to improve their profitability?

Look at a longer term perspective. Everybody has such a short term perspective because everybody's technically oriented. Look more for the longer term aspect. If you can get a fundamental basis, like "Beans will go to $10 sometime in the next six months", then go back and do some work. How has it happened before? What should I look for? Even if you are a technical person, go back and look at the technical signs. If the market went up in anticipation, what technical signs would have given me the clues then? And what happens in a realizing move that takes a long time? Then be aware of those and be looking for those this year as a tool on how you are going to play this out. It takes a lot of courage sometimes. Looking at things from a longer term perspective helps a lot. You don't have to be in a hurry to make money. Some people feel they have to be in the market today. "If the Beans are going up I have to get in before they go up." Be more deliberate. Take more time. Use your tools. The market is not going to do it all in the next two weeks. It's going to give you buying opportunities. Do you have more time than money? The market will accommodate you so don't be in a hurry. Always keep money in reserve. You're going to need it for unexpected events that are going to hit you. There are going to also be times that you know; that everything is coming into place and everybody is against your position, and you will need the money to take a little larger position than you would normally take. The key is to not be greedy. Once you've had the move that you expected during that period of time, get out. Put the money back in reserve. Trading is one of the hardest things to do. We can do all this fundamental and technical work and still screw it up because we're too greedy or we panic or we listen to too many other people rather than ourselves. Markets are really funny things. You find out what you are really made of. Markets test your courage and your ability to handle yourself in a way that is disciplined and methodical and lets you also run with your beliefs. Being able to determine those times and being able to recognize your emotions is extremely important. We all have these basic emotions that we have to fight. We have to take a loss yet we don't want to admit defeat. You've got to be as objective as you can be and honest to yourself. Not to anyone else; but to yourself. You need the ability to control yourself as well as the marketplace.

This is always easier said than done. Are there any techniques for improving discipline and objectivity?

One, is when you get a bullish report as you anticipated, you know you have to reduce your position immediately if the market doesn't perform well. It doesn't matter if you use a stop or whatever, but you have to reduce your position. You can always buy it back. That's just a cardinal rule. If something happens that you have been expecting for a long time and you have a big position and the market doesn't perform, you don't buy more, you reduce your position to protect yourself. You have to switch to defensive mode from offensive mode until the market straightens out. It's a difficult thing to describe. Everybody has their own approaches and how they think about markets. Markets can do things you never thought they could do. Cut back your position to perhaps your core position. Maintain your bullishness until the market justifies it. Then, when the market turns around back up and your technicals have turned back up, you're in Fat City.