Dec
19 Hotline
(Dec
19, 1999)
This
is the weekly market commentary that is a part of the service you receive when
you subscribe to Wall Street Winners, Courtney Smith's
stock letter. For more information click here: www.kci-com.com.
Market Commentary
The
market broke to new highs but faded in the stretch. The NASDAQ continues to lead.
I
look for more choppy but bullish action over the coming month. On the bull side,
liquidity flows are very bullish. Money is flooding into mutual funds though I
expect that the flows will decline from the November numbers. However, there is
little new supply of stock in the last two weeks of the year. Few IPO's and secondary
offerings. As a result, the supply/demand for stocks is very bullish in the last
two weeks of the year.
I
also look for money to continue to flow into technology stocks. Portfolio managers
will want to dress their balance sheets so they look like they have been long
the big winners of the year. As a result, look for the stocks that have been recently
strong to continue strong.
Unfortunately,
I am still worried about the prospects for higher interest rates and the very
poor breadth. I am now looking for the Fed to raise interest rates again in the
1Q00 in response to a very strong economy. I also did not like the tape action
last week. Most indexes made new all-time highs but the Advance/Decline line hit
new lows. This type of action does not tend to last long.
The
way to make money in this market is to go with MO. The stocks that have been doing
well will continue to do well over the near future. Keep fully invested in the
WSW stocks for now. We'll tell you when to take defensive action though I do not
expect that to happen for another month or two.
