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Nov. 16 Weekly Hotline
(Nov.
16, 1999) WSW
Hotline - 11/16/1999 By Courtney Smith The
market remains bullish and you should remain fully invested. The underlying fundamentals
are bullish with growing earnings, low inflation, and declining long term interest
rates. In addition, the seasonal picture is at it's most bullish. I've told you
to keep your focus on tech stocks and that remains the place to be. The NASDAQ
is leading the charge and will continue to be the place to be because that is
where the earnings are going to be in 2000. Other sectors will not do so well
as I look for profit margins to come under pressure. A lot of people are looking
at the National Association of Purchasing Managers Prices Paid number that is
moving sharply higher and concluding that inflation is coming back. There are
two problems with this idea. First, there is no correlation between the prices
that companies pay and general inflation. Second, companies are not receiving
higher prices as shown by the NAPM Prices Received number. The problem is that
profit margins are being squeezed if Prices Paid are increasing and Prices Received
are not. I recently had lunch with the CEO of a major fast food chain and he said
that he is being squeezed on the cost side but didn't know if he was going to
be able to raise prices. He was going to try but didn't think much would stick.
This profit margin squeeze is why I do not think that we will see general profit
gains as high as this year. Comparisons will not be as easy. Total
World Media Domination
(Nov.
17, 1999) Well,
not quite - but almost! Check out our editor-in-chief as he appears on PBS, CTV
in Toronto, Bloomberg TV, CNBC TV and shows up as guest host on CNNfn - all in
one day! Better catch up with him before he drops dead of exhaustion. Check out
our 'In the Media Listings' below for details. |
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| | COURTNEY
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